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MAT-144 · In-person sections Exam 3 Review · Unit 3
Exam 3 Review · Q16

Understanding likelihood

Four events to put in order. Two of them you can place without any arithmetic at all, and spotting those first is most of the question.

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A short walkthrough explaining what you need to know and how to solve this question type lands here once it's recorded.

ALEKS randomizes the numbers each attempt, but the question shape stays the same. Here are three example versions you might see.

Spot the impossible one

A box holds only red and green counters: 6 red and 9 green.

What is the probability of drawing a yellow counter? Enter a single number.

Spot the certain one

The same box: 6 red and 9 green, and nothing else.

What is the probability of drawing a counter that is red or green? Enter a single number.

The close pair

Jar X: 5 blue, 3 white. Jar Y: 8 blue, 5 white.

Which jar is more likely to give a blue marble? Answer X or Y.

Heads up: Your ALEKS version will use different numbers. The numbers in the practice below are different too — that way you're exercising the move, not memorizing one answer.
impossible → P = 0 the outcome is not in the bag at all
certain → P = 1 the outcome covers every object in the bag
everything else is a fraction between them compute only these
Every probability lives between 0 and 1, so the impossible event is always first and the certain event is always last. Find those two by reading, then you only have the middle ones left to work out — and those are the ones where the answer is actually decided.
Common slips
(1) Trying to compute the impossible event. There is no fraction to find; the colour is not in the bag. (2) Missing that ‘yellow or green’ is everything. When the listed colours are the only colours, that event is certain. (3) Comparing counts instead of fractions. A bag with more of a colour is not automatically more likely to yield it.
Find the 0 and the 1 first

There are two jars containing only blue and white marbles.

Jar A has 7 blue and 3 white.
Jar B has 9 blue and 3 white.

A marble is randomly chosen from each jar. List these events from least likely to most likely.

Event 1: choosing a blue marble from Jar B
Event 2: choosing a blue marble from Jar A
Event 3: choosing a blue or white marble from Jar B
Event 4: choosing a black marble from Jar A

Step 1

Which event is impossible?

One of these has probability 0. Which, and why?
Step 2

Which event is certain?

One of these has probability 1.
Step 3

Now the middle two: Event 2

Blue from Jar A: 7 blue out of 10 marbles. As a decimal.
Step 4

And Event 1

Blue from Jar B: 9 blue out of 12 marbles. As a decimal.
Step 5

Put them in order

Least likely to most likely.