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MAT-144 · In-person sections Exam 3 Review · Unit 3
Exam 3 Review · Q11

Conditional probability from a two-way table, and what it tells you

The condition picks a row or a column, and that becomes your denominator. Then compare it against the overall rate to decide whether the two things are related.

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A short walkthrough explaining what you need to know and how to solve this question type lands here once it's recorded.

ALEKS randomizes the numbers each attempt, but the question shape stays the same. Here are three example versions you might see.

Does the new medication help?

150 patients tested a medication.

Old medication: 24 no improvement, 51 improvement.
New medication: 21 no improvement, 54 improvement.

What is the probability a randomly chosen patient showed improvement? Give the decimal.

P =
The same table, conditioned

Same 150 patients. Old: 24 no improvement, 51 improvement. New: 21 no improvement, 54 improvement.

What is the probability of improvement given the patient took the new medication? Give the decimal.

P =
The inference

Overall improvement is 0.70; improvement given the new medication is 0.72.

Is there evidence the new medication makes improvement much more likely? Type yes or no.

Heads up: Your ALEKS version will use different numbers. The numbers in the practice below are different too — that way you're exercising the move, not memorizing one answer.
\(P(A \mid B) = \dfrac{\text{cell where A and B meet}}{\text{total of B}}\) the condition names the denominator
compare \(P(A \mid B)\) against \(P(A)\) higher means B makes A likelier; equal means unrelated
Find the thing after the bar, total its row or column, and that is your denominator. The numerator is the cell where it meets what you are asking about. Then, for the inference part, hold that against the overall rate: if conditioning changed the answer, the two variables are related.
Common slips
(1) Divided by the grand total. That answers the “and” question, not the conditional one. (2) Conditioned on the wrong variable. P(improvement | new medication) uses the new medication row, not the improvement column. (3) Compared the two conditionals instead of comparing against the overall rate. Read what the inference part actually asks.
Condition, then compare

Seventy items sold at an open house, by buyer and type.

T-shirt: 18 student, 21 parent. Sweatshirt: 17 student, 14 parent.

One item is chosen at random. Give answers as decimals.

Step 1

The condition's total

What is P(parent)?
P =
Step 2

The joint

What is P(T-shirt and parent)?
P =
Step 3

The conditional

What is P(T-shirt given parent)? The denominator is now the parents only.
P =